Updates

Well, it looks like AEZS has begun to move and thus my portfolio's recession period has ended. What has really surprised me though is that TLON.OB has skyrocketed these past few days, and I suppose I'm a bit sad I erased mention of it from my first blog. Yep, now I don't get the right to say that I picked it before the "pro's", but I suppose the fact that it's in my portfolio at a comparitively low $0.80 keeps the grin on my face.

TLON.OB was formerly Hana Biosciences I believe, and their lead drug is Marqibo which is targetted at ALL and has been expanded to cover a few other areas. My initial hesitance in mentioning it was due to what seemed like a stand still with the company. They were asked to work with the FDA to design a few experiments, their cash position wasn't as strong as I thought it should be, and honestly I didn't want the shame of it tanking after my public recommendation. Lesson learned: missed glory > shame. At least one other person benefitted though.

As for why it's suddenly on the move, I can only say that it must have a lot to do with the hype of "TooNiceStocks" initiating coverage on the stock. Naturally, Seekingalpha has also released an article mentioning the company. Aside from that nothing has truly changed that I have seen thus far, so whether the rocket will run out of full or burst through the exosphere I cant say, but hopefully the latter.

First Post

My first post here I believe. I tend to not like influencing what others buy, but...the site needs a revival. I recently got back into the stock game after a short break, and screened all of the publicly traded biotechs. Of them all I have narrowed it down to two that I believe may yield a nice quick profit and/or decent gains.

Aeterna, Inc. AEZS - http://www.aezsinc.com/
A biotech specializing in oncology and endocrine therapy. They have several products in their pipeline and enough cash to push the main ones forward (something like $40 million). One of their drugs, Perifosine, has been granted orphan-drug and fast track designation by the FDA, and is in phase II for indications aside from its primary. Price at recommendation: $2.01 AH

Neuralstem (CUR) - A biotech using stem cell technology to treat ailments of the CNS. I am still a bit mixed on this one, but I do believe that it holds potential and will likely buy in at some point. Price at recommendation: $1.85 AH

In addition, for long-term hold investments I have been recommending: JNJ, PEP, INTC, COP, ATVI, BMY, and V. Six of the seven pay dividends quarterly, ATVI being the exception, and all are pretty solid companies in terms of ethics and cash. JNJ> recently added Crucell to its inventory, INTC is a leader in the semi-conductor field, BMY just got approval for its melanoma drug, and ATVI is overflowing with cash and still profitting from World of WarCraft, Call of Duty, and looks to have a good year if Star Craft II expansion I and >Diablo three are released this year. Buy them up, enroll in a "DRIP", and perhaps you can someday live off of dividends or at least have a child/grandchild that can. Invest wisely, take responsibility for your decisions, and good luck! TTM


"EDIT: During my second post I found out how to edit this former wall of text; it should be more reader friendly now. No content has changed." -TTM

AVNR

After doing an extensive DD, I believe that FDA's response will be positive and they will approve the drug. Analystis expect the stock to run up to $10 a share.

Just a thought
HA

PS. PIP is another stock to watch with a huge upside potential.

CRXX gets FDA approval for Exalgo extended release tablets

Today the FDA announced approval of CRXX's drug Exalgo Extended Release Tablets. CRXX will get $40M paid to them from Covidien. Congratulations to all who took our recommendation to buy at $0.87! And Congratulations to CRXX.

February 2010: stocks to watch

XNPT (Xenoport)

Current price: $18.16

PDUFA date of 2-09-2010 for drug to prevent Restless Leg Syndrome

CTIC (Cell Therapeutics)

Current price: $1.15

FDA Advisory Panel date of 2-10-2010 for pixantrone

CRXX (CombinatorX)

Current price: $.87

New PDUFA date 2-22-2010

Don't try to pick the winners

Have you ever watched "Deal or No Deal" and heard someone say "I came in with nothing, so I'm not loosing anything..." as they turn down $250,000 in the hopes of getting the $1,000,000 briefcase? My response is always... are you kidding me??? You are loosing something... how about $250,000! By pushing the button and accepting the deal they could walk away with a quarter of a million dollars more than they had before they came on the show. But instead they leave usually with almost nothing.

This is what happens so often with biotech stock trading. You buy the stock a couple of months before the PDUFA date, clinical trial data to be released, etc. and enjoy a nice 25, 50, 100% run-up. But instead of selling and realizing your gain you wait just to see bad data, or an approvable letter come out instead of the wonderful data, or approval you were so confident would be released. Granted sometimes you do hit it big and make A LOT of money... but most of the time all of your profit if not original investment simply disappears.

So a good strategy to try out (which I am trying to do myself) is to determine when the significant dates of small biotech companies are going to happen and get in and get out before the date occurs. Make your 25, 50, 100% profit and get out before the significant event occurs. You might miss out on some profit... but at least you'll be guaranteed the profit you already have.

So... the strategy is not to pick the winners but to get in and out of potential winners before they do or do not become winners (or losers). Hopefully our blog will help you do this. We will determine which stocks have an upcoming event and give insight onto which ones we think are good or not good buys.

-AG-

Follow us on twitter

Follow our tweets on twitter. Stay up to the minute on our analysis and breaking news. We tweeted live from the FDA advisory panel meeting today for Exalgo (CRXX drug).

http://twitter.com/biotechtrader

ONTY

Current-4 months: Two compounds, PX-478 and PX-866, have promising preclinical profiles and are both in Phase I trials, with data readouts in '09. Limited number of outstanding shares and small market cap + positive data could warrant a share price increase above their 52 week high of $7.77.

Sentiment: Buy @ $5.30; Strong buy @$5.05

PJP

December 2009: stocks to watch

MSHL http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mshl
Price: .825 (8-13-09)
52 wk range: .25 (3-10-09) to 3.32 (8-26-08)
Upcoming event: data analysis from Phase 3 trail set for 12-17-09
Thoughts: good buy, $25 million cash, $0 debt; far enough away (as of 8-2009) to get a good rise in price (AG)

November 2009: stocks to watch

NRIFF.PK http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nriff.pk
Price: .24 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: .064 (11-19-08) to .429 (7-23-09)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-4-09
Thoughts: good buy... PDUFA delayed to new november date (AG)


XNPT http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=xnpt
Price: 19.86 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: 13.36 (4-30-09) to 51.42 (8-15-08)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-09-09
Thoughts: maybe good buy (AG)


GENZ http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=genz
Price: 50.31 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: 47.09 (8-10-09) to 83.97 (8-15-08)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-14-09
Thoughts: big company, at 52 wk low, after 11-14-09 PDUFA it looks like they are also going to file an amendment to their BLA with a possible additional 4 month review time (AG)


CRXX http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=crxx
Price: 1.05 (8-12-09)
52 wk range: .25 (1-26-09) to 6.99 (9-29-08)
Upcoming event: PDUFA 11-22-09
Thoughts: good buy, way off its 52 wk high (AG)
Further analysis: CRXX merged with Neuromed (7-1-09), Neuromed has drug Exalgo (rights owned by Mallinckrodt) which is in FDA review with advisory panel 9-23-09 and PDUFA 11-22-09 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CombinatoRx-and-Neuromed-Sign-bw-2619505124.html?x=0&.v=1